Goa: AAP making steady inroads - Analysis/Insights in Goa Elections 2022

AAP performance[1][2]

AAP Performance - Goa 2022 Assembly Elections
Year AAP vote % Won Second Third
2017 6.3% 0 1 16
2022 6.8% 2 2 7

  • 3 seats - Bernaulim, Siroda, Velim , AAP is the Winner/Main contestant
  • There are 7 seats where AAP has over 10% margin and a decisive factor on the outcome
  • The 10 strongest seats of AAP are - Benaulim, Siroda, Velim, St.Cruz, Dabolim, Poriem, Curtorim, Taleigoa, Navelim, Valpoi

Goa Political landscape - Very different from bigger states[2:1]

  • There are 13 parties competing in Goa small and big
  • Overall about 9 lakh voters in 40 seats
Total Electors 11,64,224
Votes Polled 9,39,816
Total Parties 13
No. of Constituencies 40
Avg. Votes polled per constituency 23,495
Win margin range in votes 77-13,943
Win margin range in vote share % 0.3% - 48.60%

Distribution of winning margins

  • Half of the seats of won within 10% margin. So Independents and smaller parties have lots of influence in splitting the votes
  • Anti-BJP vote tends to split into multiple groups and independents

Analysis of close contest seats[3]

Closely contested seats are those with margin of win is less than the votes polled by the contestant in third place

  • No of closely contested seats: 25 Seats
  • No of seats where AAP votes impacted the winning candidate: 8

INDIA alliance & Goa[4]

Assuming AAP + Congress + AITC + NCP + SS voters = Pro INDIA alliance

  • There are 20 seats where INDIA Alliance have more than 40% vote share.
  • However, regional parties like RGP, MGP,GFP together gets about 20% vote share and needs to be in alliance in INDIA against BJP to get a strong unshakable govt against BJP and win Goa.

Parliamentary seats outlook[4:1]

INDIA alliance = AAP + Congress + AITC + NCP + SS voters
Regional parties = MGP, GFP, RGP

  • While BJP has a lead of 7% over INDIA alliance in North Goa, INDIA alliance have a lead of 11% in South Goa Parliament seats.
  • The outcomes would depend on the voters of regional goa parties who have about 20% share, which side they would go.
  • Most likely INDIA alliance will win South Goa seat, while giving a strong competition  in North Goa.
  • India alliance can even win with a strong push from INDIA campaign laying ground for removing BJP from Goa in next assembly election if it can swing 10% voters in its favor in North Goa

References:

  1. https://www.indiavotes.com/party/state_info?eid=285&type=ac&partylist=Aam+Aadmi+Party+[AAP]&radioselection=ac&state=51 ↩︎

  2. https://www.indiavotes.com/ac/party/detail/51/285 ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. https://www.indiavotes.com/ac/closecontest?stateac=51&emid=285 ↩︎

  4. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LQKnKuDxLC4PwdDejDO6HrBD6SWYWNLu/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=117403928211711762324&rtpof=true&sd=true ↩︎ ↩︎