¶ AAP performance[1][2]
| AAP Performance - Goa 2022 Assembly Elections | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | AAP vote % | Won | Second | Third |
| 2017 | 6.3% | 0 | 1 | 16 |
| 2022 | 6.8% | 2 | 2 | 7 |
- 3 seats - Bernaulim, Siroda, Velim , AAP is the Winner/Main contestant
- There are 7 seats where AAP has over 10% margin and a decisive factor on the outcome
- The 10 strongest seats of AAP are - Benaulim, Siroda, Velim, St.Cruz, Dabolim, Poriem, Curtorim, Taleigoa, Navelim, Valpoi
¶ Goa Political landscape - Very different from bigger states[2:1]
- There are 13 parties competing in Goa small and big
- Overall about 9 lakh voters in 40 seats
| Total Electors | 11,64,224 |
| Votes Polled | 9,39,816 |
| Total Parties | 13 |
| No. of Constituencies | 40 |
| Avg. Votes polled per constituency | 23,495 |
| Win margin range in votes | 77-13,943 |
| Win margin range in vote share % | 0.3% - 48.60% |
¶ Distribution of winning margins
- Half of the seats of won within 10% margin. So Independents and smaller parties have lots of influence in splitting the votes
- Anti-BJP vote tends to split into multiple groups and independents
¶ Analysis of close contest seats[3]
Closely contested seats are those with margin of win is less than the votes polled by the contestant in third place
- No of closely contested seats: 25 Seats
- No of seats where AAP votes impacted the winning candidate: 8
¶ INDIA alliance & Goa[4]
Assuming AAP + Congress + AITC + NCP + SS voters = Pro INDIA alliance
- There are 20 seats where INDIA Alliance have more than 40% vote share.
- However, regional parties like RGP, MGP,GFP together gets about 20% vote share and needs to be in alliance in INDIA against BJP to get a strong unshakable govt against BJP and win Goa.
¶ Parliamentary seats outlook[4:1]
INDIA alliance = AAP + Congress + AITC + NCP + SS voters
Regional parties = MGP, GFP, RGP
- While BJP has a lead of 7% over INDIA alliance in North Goa, INDIA alliance have a lead of 11% in South Goa Parliament seats.
- The outcomes would depend on the voters of regional goa parties who have about 20% share, which side they would go.
- Most likely INDIA alliance will win South Goa seat, while giving a strong competition in North Goa.
- India alliance can even win with a strong push from INDIA campaign laying ground for removing BJP from Goa in next assembly election if it can swing 10% voters in its favor in North Goa
References:
https://www.indiavotes.com/party/state_info?eid=285&type=ac&partylist=Aam+Aadmi+Party+[AAP]&radioselection=ac&state=51 ↩︎
https://www.indiavotes.com/ac/closecontest?stateac=51&emid=285 ↩︎
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LQKnKuDxLC4PwdDejDO6HrBD6SWYWNLu/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=117403928211711762324&rtpof=true&sd=true ↩︎ ↩︎
