¶ AAP in Gujarat Elections 2022
Mapping these patterns to Parliament, if the voting preferences doesn't change
Total number of LS seats in Gujarat = 26
¶ AAP's strongest Parliament Constituencies[1]
AAP's strongest Parliament Constituencies (>20% vote share) are 8
- Dahod, Jamnagar, Bardoli, Rajkot, Junagadh, Surat, Bhavnagar, Surendranagar
¶ INDIA Alliance strongest seats[1:1]
INDIA Alliance strongest seats (>45% vote share) are 9
- Junagadh, Patan, Surendranagar, Bardoli, Jamnagar, Amreli, Rajkot, Dahod, Sabarkantha
INDIA Alliance can win 4 parliamentary seats
- Rajkot, Patan, Sabarkantha, Junagadh based on 2022 Assembly votes
¶ BJP Weak Seats[1:2]
BJP's weakest seats are 4 (< 40% vote share)
- Rajkot, Vadodara, Patan, Sabarkantha.
¶ INDIA Alliance & 5% positive swing
- With a net swing target of +5% from BJP votes to INDIA alliance
INDIA alliance can win these 11 seats
- Rajkot, Patan, Sabarkantha, Junagadh, Valsad, Amreli, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Dahod, Surendranagar and Bardoli
- Dahod, Jamnagar and Bardoli are the seats which favour AAP in INDIA alliance
¶ 2019 Parliamentary elections Pattern[1:3]
2019 parliamentary elections showed a similar pattern with Dahod, Junagadh, Bardoli, Bharuch, Patan and Anand being BJP's weaker seats
Disclaimer: More voters may choose BJP during LS elections, so have to weigh in differential voting preference between LS and Assembly . Past trends doesn't forecast well, but can help identify potential opportunities to win
Source data: Indiavotes.com
References
See excels attached - Data from IndiaVotes.com -> Analysis https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/172ULQ50y_WwA_-aHKrOq6J-lodCldMHN?usp=sharing ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎
