¶ AAP in Gujarat Elections 2022

• Insights about AAP Strong Performance [AAP Wiki] Gujarat Elections 2022

Mapping these patterns to Parliament, if the voting preferences doesn't change

Total number of LS seats in Gujarat = 26

¶ AAP's strongest Parliament Constituencies^[1]

AAP's strongest Parliament Constituencies (>20% vote share) are 8

• Dahod, Jamnagar, Bardoli, Rajkot, Junagadh, Surat, Bhavnagar, Surendranagar

¶ INDIA Alliance strongest seats^[1:1]

INDIA Alliance strongest seats (>45% vote share) are 9

• Junagadh, Patan, Surendranagar, Bardoli, Jamnagar, Amreli, Rajkot, Dahod, Sabarkantha

INDIA Alliance can win 4 parliamentary seats

• Rajkot, Patan, Sabarkantha, Junagadh based on 2022 Assembly votes

¶ BJP Weak Seats^[1:2]

BJP's weakest seats are 4 (< 40% vote share)

• Rajkot, Vadodara, Patan, Sabarkantha.

¶ INDIA Alliance & 5% positive swing

• With a net swing target of +5% from BJP votes to INDIA alliance

INDIA alliance can win these 11 seats

• Rajkot, Patan, Sabarkantha, Junagadh, Valsad, Amreli, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Dahod, Surendranagar and Bardoli
• Dahod, Jamnagar and Bardoli are the seats which favour AAP in INDIA alliance

¶ 2019 Parliamentary elections Pattern^[1:3]

2019 parliamentary elections showed a similar pattern with Dahod, Junagadh, Bardoli, Bharuch, Patan and Anand being BJP's weaker seats

Disclaimer: More voters may choose BJP during LS elections, so have to weigh in differential voting preference between LS and Assembly . Past trends doesn't forecast well, but can help identify potential opportunities to win

Source data: Indiavotes.com

References

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1. See excels attached - Data from IndiaVotes.com -> Analysis https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/172ULQ50y_WwA_-aHKrOq6J-lodCldMHN?usp=sharing ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎