Strong AAP performance [1]

AAP Vote Share - Gujarat Assembly 2022
Vote share - Total 13.1%
Vote share -  Postal Ballot 28%
50+% vote share 1
40% -50% vote share 6
30% -40% vote share 10
25% -30% vote share 15
Total seats with >25% vote share 32 out of 182(18%)

AAP Seat Share - Gujarat Assembly 2022
No. of seats Won 5
No. of seats - 2nd position 30 (7 ST seats)
No. of seats - 3rd position 119

Closely Contested seats & Vote split* [2]

Closely contested seats are those with margin of win is less than the votes polled by the contestant in third place

AAP = 3rd Alternative in Gujarat
No of closely contested seats 57
Seats AAP lost due to INC Vote cut 13
Seats INC lost due to AAP 20
Total lost seats due to vote split b/w AAP & INC 33
  • Seats where Congress dented AAP votes - Bhiloda, Chotila, Dharampur, Dhari, Fatepura, Gadhadha, Jasadan, Kalavad, Khambalia, Limbdi, Limkheda, Talala, Vyara - a total of 13 seats
  • Seats where AAP cut INC votes - Chota Udaipur, Dahod, Dangs, Dasada, Dhoraji, Dwarka, Garbada, Himat Nagar, Kaprada, Keshod, Mahuva,  Mandvi,  Mangrol, Nizar,  Rajkot East, Rapar, Savarkundla, Tankara, Wankaner - a total of 20 seats

*assuming shared voter profile

AAP Strengths in Gujarat[3]

AAP won 5 seats of Botad, Dediapada, Gariadhar, Jamjodhpur, Visavadhar

Dediapada is the strongest constituency with Chaitar Vasava winning with a margin of 40,282 votes against BJP and 56% vote share

  • Though lost, in Limkheda AAP's Baria Punabhai got 43.7% votes, Alpesh Katharia from Varchha Road won 41.3% votes
  • 10 Other strong constituencies of AAP (with more than 30% vote share) are - Devghadbharia, Dhari,Jasdan, Jhalod, Kalavad, Kamrej,Khambalia, Limbdi, Rajkot Rural, Talala. A total of 17 seats (about 9%) where AAP is very strong
  • 15 Other strong constituencies (25+% vote share) are : Bhiloda, Chotila, Dharampur, Fatepura, Gadhadha, Jetpur, Karanj, Katargam, Mangrol, Vyara, Chota Udaipur, Kaprada, Khedbrahma, Mandvi, Wankaner

In 32(18%) assembly seats, at least 1 in 4 (25+% of voters) prefer AAP

AAP strongest Parliament Constituencies

  • 8 Lok Sabha Seats(>20% vote share) - Dahod, Jamnagar, Bardoli, Rajkot, Junagadh, Surat, Bhavnagar, Surendranagar

Gujarat Lok Sabha 2024 Insights/Projections

References:


  1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/gujarat/gujarat-assembly-elections-aap-bled-the-congress-and-not-the-bjp/articleshow/96093916.cms ↩︎

  2. https://www.indiavotes.com/ac/closecontest?stateac=29&emid=290 ↩︎

  3. https://www.indiavotes.com/ac/allcabdidateparty?stateac=29&emid=290&party=1504 ↩︎