¶ Strong AAP performance [1]
| AAP Vote Share - Gujarat Assembly 2022 | |
|---|---|
| Vote share - Total | 13.1% |
| Vote share - Postal Ballot | 28% |
| 50+% vote share | 1 |
| 40% -50% vote share | 6 |
| 30% -40% vote share | 10 |
| 25% -30% vote share | 15 |
| Total seats with >25% vote share | 32 out of 182(18%) |
| AAP Seat Share - Gujarat Assembly 2022 | |
|---|---|
| No. of seats Won | 5 |
| No. of seats - 2nd position | 30 (7 ST seats) |
| No. of seats - 3rd position | 119 |
¶ Closely Contested seats & Vote split* [2]
Closely contested seats are those with margin of win is less than the votes polled by the contestant in third place
| AAP = 3rd Alternative in Gujarat | |
|---|---|
| No of closely contested seats | 57 |
| Seats AAP lost due to INC Vote cut | 13 |
| Seats INC lost due to AAP | 20 |
| Total lost seats due to vote split b/w AAP & INC | 33 |
- Seats where Congress dented AAP votes - Bhiloda, Chotila, Dharampur, Dhari, Fatepura, Gadhadha, Jasadan, Kalavad, Khambalia, Limbdi, Limkheda, Talala, Vyara - a total of 13 seats
- Seats where AAP cut INC votes - Chota Udaipur, Dahod, Dangs, Dasada, Dhoraji, Dwarka, Garbada, Himat Nagar, Kaprada, Keshod, Mahuva, Mandvi, Mangrol, Nizar, Rajkot East, Rapar, Savarkundla, Tankara, Wankaner - a total of 20 seats
*assuming shared voter profile
¶ AAP Strengths in Gujarat[3]
AAP won 5 seats of Botad, Dediapada, Gariadhar, Jamjodhpur, Visavadhar
Dediapada is the strongest constituency with Chaitar Vasava winning with a margin of 40,282 votes against BJP and 56% vote share
- Though lost, in Limkheda AAP's Baria Punabhai got 43.7% votes, Alpesh Katharia from Varchha Road won 41.3% votes
- 10 Other strong constituencies of AAP (with more than 30% vote share) are - Devghadbharia, Dhari,Jasdan, Jhalod, Kalavad, Kamrej,Khambalia, Limbdi, Rajkot Rural, Talala. A total of 17 seats (about 9%) where AAP is very strong
- 15 Other strong constituencies (25+% vote share) are : Bhiloda, Chotila, Dharampur, Fatepura, Gadhadha, Jetpur, Karanj, Katargam, Mangrol, Vyara, Chota Udaipur, Kaprada, Khedbrahma, Mandvi, Wankaner
In 32(18%) assembly seats, at least 1 in 4 (25+% of voters) prefer AAP
¶ AAP strongest Parliament Constituencies
- 8 Lok Sabha Seats(>20% vote share) - Dahod, Jamnagar, Bardoli, Rajkot, Junagadh, Surat, Bhavnagar, Surendranagar
¶ Gujarat Lok Sabha 2024 Insights/Projections
References:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/gujarat/gujarat-assembly-elections-aap-bled-the-congress-and-not-the-bjp/articleshow/96093916.cms ↩︎
https://www.indiavotes.com/ac/closecontest?stateac=29&emid=290 ↩︎
https://www.indiavotes.com/ac/allcabdidateparty?stateac=29&emid=290&party=1504 ↩︎
